• Competition: La Liga
• Date: Sunday, 22nd September, 2024
• Kickoff: 15:15 UK / 16:15 CEST
• Venue: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Last year, Athletic Bilbao had the best season in a very long time. They won the Copa del Rey title and finished 5th in La Liga. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough for the Champions League appearance, and we firmly believe they should be among the best 36 teams in Europe. This year, the famous Basque team started the season poorly, with just one point in the first two games. Still, after that initial bad start, they won three of the last four and are now sitting in 5th place. However, they played a game more than most La Liga teams, and that fifth place isn't as great as it had seemed at first.

Celta Vigo had two difficult last seasons, finishing 13 and 14 and winning only 43 and 41 points. Over the Summer we do not think they got significantly better, but they are playing much better. After six rounds, the Sky Blues are 6th with nine points, one point away from their next opponent, Athletico Bilbao, but with one game played fewer. Still, in contrast to Athletic Bilbao, which had some difficult games against Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, Celta Vigo had an easy schedule and did not face anyone from the top seven from the last season. So, a somewhat easier schedule is definitely one of the reasons for their strong start.

Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo pick: Athletic Bilbao to win

Athletic Bilbao won back-to-back games and have won three of the last four matches. They played well in those four matches, even in the 1:0 loss against Atletico Madrid, where they had their chances to secure a draw. Besides their good form, Athletico Bilbao is notorious for its good home record. Last season, they won 12 of 19 La Liga games - 63%. On the other hand, they had just a 37% win rate away from home. We believe they will win most of their points at home this season as well.

Celta Vigo have done well so far, but as we said, they have had a slightly easier schedule. Additionally, they won all nine points at home. On the road, they lost both matches against Villarreal and Osasuna and allowed seven goals. So, it is difficult to expect a positive result against a strong home team like Bilbao.

Last season and in the season before the last one, both teams won their (h2h) home games. Considering the previous h2h games at Estadio San Mamés, Bilbao's home pitch advantage, and Celta's poor road record this season, we believe that the Basque team is much closer to winning the upcoming La Liga game.